It would seem that the closer a trader is to 100% winning trades, the better trader they are. On the flip side it would seem that the closer they are to 0%, the worse they are. While it is certainly true that you would like to win the most trades possible, there is more to it than that. I would argue that a 95% win rate is infinitely worse than a 65% win rate. Hopefully this article will help to tell you why.
Our first look will be at those traders with a low win rate, say those with a classification within the 0% to 40% range. If the trader falls closer to the 0% rate one would think him to be a genuine loser. In truth, most in this category are losing traders. But you will sometimes see a trader trying to snag really large moves with really tight stops. This guy may show an extremely low win percentage but could still be a very successful player.
Next, let us look at the 40% - 70% range. Most of your winning traders will fall somewhere in here. They win not because the majority of their trades are winners with few losers. It is quite possible that have more losing trades than winning ones. Their success comes from their ability to correctly manage their trades once opened. They take advantage of stops that will then be executed more often than not. This looks for all the world like a losing trade, and it is, but a small loser. The traders that can manage their trades effectively most often are the ones that are able to cut their losses and allow their winners to take off. There are very few traders out there who have the discipline to take advantage of this simple concept.
The final group we are going to be concerned with is the one with very high wins of greater than 70%. More people gravitate to them the closer they get to the 100% mark. These people should do the opposite and leave such traders alone. Unfortunately, few of them do. By taking profit off of the table immediately on appearance, these traders seem to have an extremely high win record. This strategy would work if these same traders also cut losses in the same manner. Traders who have a 95% plus win rate will not be looking at this strategy. They will normally let a loser run ad infinitum and even add to that position much of the time rather than accepting the small loss and moving on with their trading day. Allowing a loser to run like this will in the course of time wipe out months or more of winning trades in one fell swoop and is definitely not the road to success. Keep in mind that one 500 pip loser wipes out all the gains of 500 one pip winners. On the surface, this type of trader has over 99% winning trades. In fact, he could easily have an overall losing record.
Do not think that the reason for this article to be written is to say that no trader outside of a specific range can be a winner. There are certainly many people who can and do win with a winning % outside of the ranges described above. The point of the article is to warn you to look very closely at the trader with a 95% win rate. His losing trades will probably cause him to implode down the line. - 29954
Our first look will be at those traders with a low win rate, say those with a classification within the 0% to 40% range. If the trader falls closer to the 0% rate one would think him to be a genuine loser. In truth, most in this category are losing traders. But you will sometimes see a trader trying to snag really large moves with really tight stops. This guy may show an extremely low win percentage but could still be a very successful player.
Next, let us look at the 40% - 70% range. Most of your winning traders will fall somewhere in here. They win not because the majority of their trades are winners with few losers. It is quite possible that have more losing trades than winning ones. Their success comes from their ability to correctly manage their trades once opened. They take advantage of stops that will then be executed more often than not. This looks for all the world like a losing trade, and it is, but a small loser. The traders that can manage their trades effectively most often are the ones that are able to cut their losses and allow their winners to take off. There are very few traders out there who have the discipline to take advantage of this simple concept.
The final group we are going to be concerned with is the one with very high wins of greater than 70%. More people gravitate to them the closer they get to the 100% mark. These people should do the opposite and leave such traders alone. Unfortunately, few of them do. By taking profit off of the table immediately on appearance, these traders seem to have an extremely high win record. This strategy would work if these same traders also cut losses in the same manner. Traders who have a 95% plus win rate will not be looking at this strategy. They will normally let a loser run ad infinitum and even add to that position much of the time rather than accepting the small loss and moving on with their trading day. Allowing a loser to run like this will in the course of time wipe out months or more of winning trades in one fell swoop and is definitely not the road to success. Keep in mind that one 500 pip loser wipes out all the gains of 500 one pip winners. On the surface, this type of trader has over 99% winning trades. In fact, he could easily have an overall losing record.
Do not think that the reason for this article to be written is to say that no trader outside of a specific range can be a winner. There are certainly many people who can and do win with a winning % outside of the ranges described above. The point of the article is to warn you to look very closely at the trader with a 95% win rate. His losing trades will probably cause him to implode down the line. - 29954
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